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The surprising decision of US President Donald Trump temporarily suspended the reciprocal overall obligations quickly reassured the markets and reduced prospects for the economic recession.
Trump lightens pressure and recession fears fall
On Wednesday, April 9, 2025, Donald Trump announced a 90 -day customs break at least 10 % of most American imports, with a significant exception to China. This decision had an immediate impact on economic predictions.
The prediction markets quickly adjusted their estimates. The countless market platform reduced the probability of US recession by the end of 2025 to 46 %, while the polymarket and Kalshi estimated it at 48 %and 55 %.
These predictions represent an impressive decline from 15 % to 25 % compared to previous estimates.
Goldman Sachs even abolished his forecast of the economic recession in the United States before the end of 2025, a sign that the main financial institutions consider this measure to be important for US economic stability.
A spectacular reflection on the financial markets
The presidential announcement caused a magnificent increase in financial markets. The Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 approached 10%to the nitrojurní peak, largely erased the losses from the previous week caused by the initial announcement of the aggressive tariff diet.
The crypto market was not overcome. Bitcoin jumped up 4.6% in less than an hour, reaching $ 81,300, while Ethereum and XRP also recorded a significant increase.
President Trump also expected this positive reaction of markets by publishing on Truth Social a few hours before the official announcement: “This is the ideal time to buy !!!” »
However, some experts like Justin Wolfers, the professor of the economy at the University of Michigan, require caution. According to him, the risks of the recession remain “very high” because “the president has already caused a lot of damage and offers only a partial solution.” »
Nevertheless, this turning point in the trade war offers a welcome relief to the US economy and world markets, although uncertainty persists concerning future business relations, especially with China.
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Passionate Bitcoin, I like to explore meanders blockchain and cryptos and share my discoveries with the community. My dream is to live in a world where privacy and financial freedom is guaranteed for everyone, and I firmly believe that Bitcoin is a tool that can make it possible.
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The words and opinions expressed in this article are involved only by their author and should not be considered investment counseling. Do your own research before any investment decision.